Modelling the variability of the sea-ice conditions in the Baltic Sea under different climate conditions

Jari Haapala, Arja Juottonen, Marika Marnela, Matti Leppäranta, Heikki Tuomenvirta
2001 Annals of Glaciology  
The present and future ice conditions around 100 years from present in the Baltic Sea are examined by two 10 year integrations of an ice-ocean model. Results from atmospheric climate-model simulations constitute the atmospheric forcing, one representing present climate conditions (control simulation), and the other global warming due to CO2 doubling (scenario simulation). The present-day climatological ice conditions and the interannual variability were realistically reproduced by the ice-ocean
more » ... ed by the ice-ocean model. The modelled range of the maximum annual ice extent in the Baltic was 190−420 × 103km2 in the control simulation and 50−270 × 103km2 in the scenario simulation. The range of the annual maximum level-ice thickness was 45−85 and 20−58 cm in the control and scenario simulations, respectively.
doi:10.3189/172756401781818383 fatcat:reozo2skqzbnbkpfxun5e6dynm