A review of global-local-global linkages in economic land-use/cover change models

Thomas W Hertel, Thales West, Jan Boerner, Nelson Benjamin Villoria
2019 Environmental Research Letters  
10 Global change drivers of land-use/cover change (LUCC) like population dynamics, economic 11 development, and climate change are increasingly important to local sustainability studies, and can 12 only be properly analyzed at fine-scales that capture local biophysical and socio-economic 13 conditions. When sufficiently widespread, local feedback to stresses originating from global 14 drivers can have regional, national, and even global impacts. A multiscale, global-to-local-to-15 global (GLG)
more » ... to-15 global (GLG) framework is thus needed for comprehensive analyses of LUCC and leakage. The 16 number of GLG-LUCC studies has growth substantially over the past years, but no reviews of this 17 literature and their contributions have been completed so far. In fact, the largest body of literature 18 pertains to global-to-local impacts exclusively, whereas research on local feedback to regional, 19 national, and global spheres remain scarce, and are almost solely undertaken within large modeling 20 institutes. As such, those are rarely readily accessible for modification and extension by outside 21 contributors. This review of the recent GLG-LUCC studies calls for more open-source modeling 22 and availability of data, arguing that the latter is the real constraint to more widespread analyses 23 of GLG-LUCC impacts. Progress in this field will require contributions from hundreds of 24 researchers around the world and from a wide variety of disciplines. 25 3 subnational contexts, defined by natural resource availability, infrastructure and technology 55 transfer, socioeconomic conditions (e.g., population size, income and education levels) and 56 preferences (e.g., dietary choices, environmental and social awareness), modulate the impacts of 57 global drivers on regional or local stressors. Once the impacts of global drivers reach domestic 58 producers and consumers, they may induce production and behavioral changes related to land 59 use/cover and socioeconomic preferences (e.g., for animal-sourced food) and conditions (e.g., 60 income growth and energy consumption). Negative impacts can result, for example, in 61 overexploitation of natural resources, agriculture-induced water scarcity, higher food prices, 62 exacerbated land conflicts, and socioeconomic hardship. Consequently, the impacts of global 63 drivers are often followed by national or subnational responses such as changes in governance and 64 regulations, as well as technological innovation, which can, in turn, feedback to the global level 65 (Figure 1). 66 67 Page 3 of 36 AUTHOR SUBMITTED MANUSCRIPT -ERL-105374.R2 4 68 Figure 1. Conceptual framework for global-to-local-to-global linkages of land-use/cover change. 69 Global drivers, including population, income, climate, and technology drive the global supply and 70 demand for land-based products, resulting in new market equilibria, price changes, and people 71 movement. When filtered through the national and subnational policies, global effects result in 72 local stresses and responses which affect enterprises, households, and the environment, leading to 73 policy changes and innovations, as well as to adjusted supplies and demands for land-based goods. 74 Finally, the resulting changes in land use/cover attributed to both local and global factors may 75 feedback to the global context. 76 77 The GLG-LUCC framework acknowledges that local impacts and responses can have 78 important implications, not only locally or regionally, but also at the national and -often 79 overlooked -global levels. If these responses are strictly localized, then it is unlikely that the 80 feedback to international prices will be significant. However, if many localities respond to the 81 influence of global drivers, GLG-LUCC feedbacks might affect global environmental and 82
doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab0d33 fatcat:gyaendq4zzbhzbr42lxsreoziq