Mathematical Modelling on the Effects of Drug Abuse to the Societies

Fikiri Lucas Matonya, The Nelson Mandela African Institute of Science and Technology, Dmitry Kuznetsov
2019 Annals of Pure and Applied Mathematics  
The global burden of death and disability attributable to drug users, remains a significant threat to public health for both developed and developing countries. This paper present a new mathematical modelling framework to investigate the effects of drug use in the community. In our model the transmission process is considered as a social contact process between the susceptible individuals and drug users based on the epidemiology principles. An epidemic threshold value, ܴ , is proposed for the
more » ... proposed for the drug-using career. Sensitivity analysis is performed on ܴ , and it is then used to examine the stability of the system. A condition under which a backward bifurcation may exist is found, as are conditions that permit the existence of one or more endemic equilibria. A key result arising from this model is that prevention is indeed better than cure.
doi:10.22457/apam.591v19n1a4 fatcat:g54rpzapjrh55fpvpilipfden4