Modeling and Reviewing Study to the COVID-19 Epidemic in PR China [post]

Mingzhao Wang, Juanying Xie, Shengquan Xu
2020 unpublished
Background: COVID-19 epidemic has been widely spread all over the world. During it appears in China, Chinese government quickly put forward and implement prevention and control measures to keep its spread within limits. This study aims to investigate the impacts of the prevention and control measures in controlling COVID-19 epidemic in China, so as to give a clue to control its spread in the world. Methods: We establish a two-stage dynamics transmission model with "lockdown of Wuhan city" as
more » ... f Wuhan city" as the time line. The first stage is the SEIR derived model that considers the contagious of the exposed. It simulates the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province before "lockdown of Wuhan city". The second stage is a novel transmission dynamics model named SEIRQH. It takes into account the influence on the COVID-19 epidemic from the series of measures such as travel restriction, contact tracing, centralized treatment, the asymptomatic infected patients, hospitalized patients and so on. It simulates the COVID-19 epidemic in China after "lockdown of Wuhan city". The least square method is used to estimate the parameters of SEIR derived model and the proposed SEIRQH model based on the collected epidemic data of COVID-19 from Hubei Province and the mainland of China. Results: The SEIR derived model fits the actual data in Hubei Province before "lockdown of Wuhan city". The basic reproduction number of COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province is 3.2035 before "lockdown of Wuhan city". The SEIRQH model fits the number of the hospitalized persons of COVID-19 in Hubei Province and the mainland of China perfectly. The control reproductive number are 0.11428 and 0.09796 in Hubei Province and the mainland of China, respectively. The prevention and control measures taken by Chinese government play the significant role against the COVID-19 spread in China. Conclusions: Our two-stage dynamics transmission model simulates the COVID-19 in China, especially our SEIRQH model fits the actual data very well. The prevention and control measures implemented by Chinese government are effective in preventing the wide spread of COVID-19 epidemic in China. These measures give the reference to World Health Organization and other countries in controlling COVID-19 epidemic.
doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-122945/v1 fatcat:b6wbxfl6zje2nfbakgjdz7zxl4