Stochastic Models for the Infectivity Function in an Infinite Population of Susceptible Individuals

Viswanathan Arunachalam, Liliana Blanco
2017 Journal of Probability and Statistics  
Two stochastic models to study the course of the transient behaviour of the total infectivity present in an infinite population of susceptible individuals are developed. The conditional intensity function of the contagion comprises two components: one is due to the external sources only and the other is the contribution of each of the infected persons which is nonstationary in nature. The statistical characteristics of the number of infected individuals at any time are explicitly obtained.
more » ... itly obtained. Estimation of the model parameters is also indicated.
doi:10.1155/2017/9064821 fatcat:b57cqg3fpfcchkioavuq276zre