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This paper describes an analogue-based method for producing strong convection forecasts with conventional outputs from numerical models. The method takes advantage of the good performance of numerical models in predicting synoptic-scale weather situations. It calculates the convective parameters as predictors to detect the favorable-occurrence environment of strong convections. Times in the past when the forecast parameters are most similar to those forecast at the current time are identifieddoi:10.6084/m9.figshare.11878047 fatcat:szyjlszrhrd2zchnigg5l3wynm