Load distribution analysis for Black sea region in Turkey

Emel Onal
2017 Applied Researches in Technics, Technologies and Education  
In this study, the short term load estimate of the free consumer industrial zone in the provinces of Samsun, Çorum, Sinop, Ordu, Amasya in the Black Sea Region is estimated and the peak load energy consumption values of April 14 -April 20, 2014 is estimated. Simple regression analysis and moving average models which are usual methods for estimation have used, also artificial neural networks have used which has increased significantly in recent years in the Prophet program, which is prepared by
more » ... ich is prepared by the MA & Fraunhofer Institute, and which has many applications in different fields. Actual load values for year 2014 are entered in the input values. It has been determined that the artificial neural networks have been applied with the help of the Prophet program, the results are closer to the true values. Absolute success is calculated for all methods. By solving the equations (1) and (2) by looking at the total consumption of Tuesday and Wednesday for the weekdays, and the hourly values are solved by the coefficients a, b for each hour [7] [8] . When the coefficients a and b are substituted in the power equation (6) , the load forecast values for 5 days for 24 hours are found. The Moving Average method (MA) is used to set the estimate value for days in the MA weekend. The results of the estimation of the short-term load estimates obtained from the estimation methods starting
doi:10.15547/artte.2017.03.008 fatcat:bhyx7m7h65hsldddamdtg57l3i