Agroclimatic Impact on Gastrointestinal Infection: A Mathematical Model [post]

Goutam Ghosh, Subhasish Bandyopadhyay, Amit Chattopadhyay
2020 unpublished
Identifying the correct dosage and time are key factors to successful implementation of anthelmintic. Comparing differential evolution of infection between anthelmintic treated animals against untreated ones, we present a mathematical model that first calibrates data collected and analyzed over an extended period of 10 years (2011-2019), and then predicts the dynamical evolution of gastrointestinal parasites in livestock, focusing specifically on Stronglye \& Coccidia oocysts, the two prime
more » ... ysts, the two prime negative contributors to cattle health, measured using the standard Eggs-Per-Gram (EPG) index. The model incorporates information about all three critical regimes of infection - low infection regime ($< 50$ EPG), medium infection regime ($50-100$ EPG) and high infection regime ($>100$ EPG), including fatally large doses of infection ($> 500$), and probabilistically estimates the variation in animal weight due to infection propagation. A key success of our model is its ability to accurately predict the appropriate anthelmintic treatment times for cattle from a numerical solution of the model presented. The generic model can be applied to other agroclimatic conditions and can serve as a major diagnostic tool for anthelmintic strategizing.
doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0731.v1 fatcat:rjdudicbtnddpowvwru5cvbe3a