Study on the virus transmission based on data analysis of confirmed cases of the new-type coronavirus pneumonia in China [post]

Peng Chen
2020 unpublished
This study was based on the numerical analysis on the number of confirmed cases of new-type coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan announced by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, and the confirmed cases is collected from 15 January to present (30 January). The analysis results show that during this period, the number of confirmed cases increased strictly according to a single exponential law, indicating that the virus transmission showed a chain reaction. The main
more » ... n. The main conclusion is that the spread of the virus is not only a "human-to-human" transmission, but also that the infectious power of each generation has not changed till to 29 Jan, and the number of people infected has increased tenfold in about 6 days, which are much faster than SARS. Furthermore, the rapid increase in the number of cases suggests that the new virus may have some new transmission channels different from SARS. According to these results, it is suggested to concentrate on studying the new-type coronavirus transmission mechanism and take targeted measures to comprehensively stop the virus infection.
doi:10.31219/osf.io/ek9n4 fatcat:kuh657ri7zdphoyo2pzyt5udvq