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Models that predict annual U.S. hurricane activity assume a Poisson distribution for the counts. Here the authors show that this assumption applied to Florida hurricanes leads to a forecast that underpredicts both the number of years without hurricanes and the number of years with three or more hurricanes. The underdispersion in forecast counts arises from a tendency for hurricanes to arrive in groups along this part of the coastline. The authors then develop an extension to their earlierdoi:10.1175/jamc-d-11-0107.1 fatcat:qe2cmfwhunc37ap2mfsczedqdi