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In the EFFS Project, an attempt has been made to develop a general framework to study the predictability of severe convective rainfall events in the presence of orography. Convective activity is embedded in orographic rainfall and can be thought as the result of several physical mechanisms. Quantifying its variability on selected area and time scales requires choosing the best physical representation of the rainfall variability on these scales. The main goal was (i) to formulate a meaningfuldoi:10.5194/hess-9-285-2005 fatcat:hppvzk3wtvdfzpfbguwmkfz3vy