Application of International Freight Simultaneous Transportation Equilibrium Model to Sultanate of Oman

Mohamad K. Hasan
2017 Journal of Service Science and Management  
An implementation of the International Freight Simultaneous Transportation Equilibrium Model (IFSTEM) that developed in United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), to the goods trade through the ports and lands of Sultanate of Oman is presented. Although some socio-economic variables, which are not available, were required for IFSTEM model calibration, some reasonable assumptions were made and it was good enough to draw the following main findings: the proposed
more » ... the proposed alternative enhancement scenarios were four nested scenarios, i.e., each scenario included the previous one plus an additional enhancement. These four enhancement scenarios were analyzed against and compared with scenario (0), i.e., the reference "do nothing" scenario. The prediction results revealed that the estimated international trade flows (imports, exports and re-exports) for Oman were increased by more than 504% by 2040 compared to the present situation of the base year 2012. This increase would represent around 70% compared to the "do nothing" reference scenario by the year 2040 assuming that the average increase of international trade flows in the "do nothing" case would be around 4% annually during the analysis period from 2012 to 2040. The predictions of average total trip time and total cost per ton revealed an estimated decrease, compared to the reference scenario, by around 25% and 20% respectively. These results are internally consistent and represented reasonably significant improvements compared to the "do nothing" reference scenario. econometric demand models as well. The emphasis is on network representation and the proper representation of congestion effects in a static model aimed to serve comparative studies or discrete time multiperiod analyses. The first significant multimodal predictive freight network model was by Roberts [16] and later extended by Kresge and Roberts [17]. This model became known as the Harvard-Brookings model. Only the behavior of shippers was taken into account. Using constant unit costs, each shipper chooses the shortest path for movements from an origin to a destination. The amount moving between an origin-destination (O-D) pair being determined by a simple distribution submodel. The model resorted to a fairly simple "directed link" representation of the physical network and congestion effects were not considered. The model was applied to the transport network of Columbia. Later, the Multi-State Transportation Corridor Model (McGinnis et al. [18], Jones and Sharp [19] and Sharp [20]) went a step further in representing an exporters and importers of different commodities over the international multimodal network for Oman. The remainder of this article is structured as follows: In Section 2, we describe the international trade flows prediction model for Oman (IFSTEM-Oman Model); Then, in Section 3, IFSTEM-Oman model application assumptions are presented before predicted international trade flows, times and costs: application results and analysis are presented in Section 4; Finally, conclusions are presented in Section 5.
doi:10.4236/jssm.2017.106043 fatcat:fgxrklobnbdzvmv3b7ratshtqq