QML INFERENCE FOR VOLATILITY MODELS WITH COVARIATES

Christian Francq, Le Quyen Thieu
2018 Econometric Theory  
The asymptotic distribution of the Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) is obtained for a wide class of asymmetric GARCH models with exogenous covariates. The true value of the parameter is not restricted to belong to the interior of the parameter space, which allows us to derive tests for the significance of the parameters. In particular, the relevance of the exogenous variables can be assessed. The results are obtained without assuming that the innovations are independent, which
more » ... allows conditioning on different information sets. Monte Carlo experiments and applications to financial series illustrate the asymptotic results. In particular, an empirical study demonstrates that the realized volatility can be a helpful covariate for predicting squared returns.
doi:10.1017/s0266466617000512 fatcat:otfexaervbh3znk3r56axkkoxm