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Sharp increases in COVID-19 cases occurred after reopening in the United States. We show that the post-intervention effective reproduction number is a strong predictor of the surge in late June. Lax interventions in the early stages coupled with elevated virus spread are primarily responsible for surges in most affected states.doi:10.1101/2020.07.17.20156604 fatcat:ajzbslneqbfwbb73nlhfiwicp4