Spatio-Temporally Correlated Wind Uncertainty Model for Simulation of Terminal Airspace Operations

Veera V. Vaddi, Monish D. Tandale, Sydney Lin
2013 2013 Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference   unpublished
This paper deals with modeling the uncertainty associated with wind forecasts. National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration's (NOAA's) RAPid Refresh (RAP) product is used as the wind forecast product. Actual aircraft measured data obtained by Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) is treated as the 'actual' wind data. The paper creates a spatio-temporally correlated model for the error between the RAP and ACARS data. The error model is treated as the uncertainty in
more » ... e uncertainty in wind forecast. The wind uncertainty model captures the statistics of the North and East wind components as a function of altitude. It captures the correlation of errors both in the spatial and temporal domains. Furthermore, the paper develops an approach to generate sample random wind profiles for use in Monte Carlo simulations. The ability to generate random samples of wind facilitates evaluation of the robustness of NextGen concepts when subject to realistic wind uncertainties. The overall approach is illustrated for the terminal airspace of the San Francisco International Airport (SFO). * Senior Research Scientist, 95 First Street, monish@optisyn.com, Senior Member AIAA † Senior Research Scientist, 95 First Street, vaddi@optisyn.com, Senior Member AIAA ‡ Research Engineer, 95 First Street, slin@optisyn.com § Research Scientist, 95 First Street, sengupta@optisyn.com, Senior Member AIAA T Downloaded by UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA -BERKELEY on June 25, 2014 | http://arc.aiaa.org |
doi:10.2514/6.2013-4404 fatcat:osj7dvnyvneapnv5wdcbbfbr6e