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Decision-Making under the Gambler's Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires
We find consistent evidence of negative autocorrelation in decision-making that is unrelated to the merits of the cases considered in three separate high-stakes field settings: refugee asylum court decisions, loan application reviews, and major league baseball umpire pitch calls. The evidence is most consistent with the law of small numbers and the gambler's fallacy -people underestimating the likelihood of sequential streaks occurring by chance -leading to negatively autocorrelated decisionsdoi:10.3386/w22026 fatcat:xei3lrsanjeh3jxp44xaubs44i