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A method for Bayesian estimation of the probability of local intensity for some cities in Japan
Annals of Geophysics
Seismic hazard in terms of probability of exceedance of a given intensity in a given time span,was assessed for 12 sites in Japan.The method does not use any attenuation law.Instead,the dependence of local intensity on epicentral intensity I 0 is calculated directly from the data,using a Bayesian model.According to this model (Meroni et al., 1994),local intensity follows the binomial distribution with parameters (I 0 ,p ).The parameter p is considered as a random variable following the Betadoi:10.4401/ag-3528 doaj:2009e78e89d34c79957541e85be2bc03 fatcat:ehosgjcxljhoxhjutgpwbkda4e