A visão de futuro por meio de cenários prospectivos: uma ferramenta para a antecipação da inovação disruptiva

Ivan Domicio Da Silva Souza, Vania Passarini Takahashi
2012 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies  
Future events are unknown, unexpected and even if forecasts may offer some estimation, there is no way to predict the behavior of unprecedented events. Therefore, looking into the future and drafting a strategy is not a simple activity. All this process is even more fastidious in a period of uncertainties, changes and world crises. However, a method named Scenario Planning may contribute to the formulation of strategies in turbulent environments. In this paper it is reviewed and consolidated
more » ... and consolidated the theories and reports in the literature, in order to elucidate the use of prospective scenarios as a tool to anticipate disruptive innovation. In this sense, it is presented and discussed some considerations about the origin of scenarios, the relation between scenarios and strategy, the typologies of scenarios, the tools for scenarios construction, the traditional methods in scenarios development and the advantages and disadvantages of this method. Indeed, scenario planning is a flexible and stimulative method which allows one to identify opportunities for innovation, so as to favor resilient strategic planning and future visioning in threatening environments.
doi:10.7444/fsrj.v4i2.110 fatcat:u645ly4dzfdt3jzbketprxbnj4