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The article deals with the analysis of failure probability of the effect of random factors in uencing fatigue crack propagation in a steel element under bending moment. The theoretical model of fatigue crack progression is based on linear fracture mechanics. When determining the required degree of failure probability, it is possible to specify the time of the first inspection of the construction, which will focus on the fatigue damage. Using a conditional probability, subsequent inspectiondoi:10.12697/acutm.2019.23.21 fatcat:367lmro5kvcf7ddnpbrwvfjtam