The Sure-Thing Principle

Judea Pearl
2016 Journal of Causal Inference  
AbstractIn 1954, Jim Savage introduced the Sure Thing Principle to demonstrate that preferences among actions could constitute an axiomatic basis for a Bayesian foundation of statistical inference. Here, we trace the history of the principle, discuss some of its nuances, and evaluate its significance in the light of modern understanding of causal reasoning.
doi:10.1515/jci-2016-0005 fatcat:x3sg3uztxncf7lsylck7povqbq