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Theory and Decision
In a homogeneous jury, the votes are exchangeable correlated Bernoulli random variables. We derive the bounds on a homogeneous jury's competence as the minimum and maximum probability of the jury being correct, which arise due to unknown correlations among the votes. The lower bound delineates the downside risk associated with entrusting decisions to the jury. In large and not-too-competent juries the lower bound may fall below the success probability of a fair coin flip-one half, while thedoi:10.1007/s11238-010-9216-5 fatcat:lshimp6dgjdmtkahnamoerk7ii