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Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning

1999
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Psychological review
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This article outlines a theory of naive probability. According to the theory, individuals who are unfamiliar with the probability calculus can infer the probabilities of events in an extensional way: They construct mental models of what is true in the various possibilities. Each model represents an equiprobable alternative unless individuals have beliefs to the contrary, in which case some models will have higher probabilities than others. The probability of an event depends on the proportion

doi:10.1037//0033-295x.106.1.62
fatcat:vwjg7opguzcr7pfoziwkmvxviy