Forecasting Solar Energetic Particle Events and Associated False Alarms

Bill Swalwell, Silvia Dalla, Robert Walsh
2017 Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union  
AbstractBecause of the significant dangers they pose, accurate forecasting of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events is vital. Whilst it has long been known that SEP-production is associated with high-energy solar events, forecasting algorithms based upon the observation of these types of solar event suffer from high false alarm rates. Here we analyse the parameters of 4 very high energy solar events which were false alarms, with a view to reaching an understanding as to why SEPs were not
more » ... EPs were not detected at Earth. We find that in each case at least two factors were present which have been shown to be detrimental to SEP production.
doi:10.1017/s1743921317011036 fatcat:bb3o6ry725c23pzzehqsezenmi