STRATEGIC FORESIGHT USING AN ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF THE ELECTRIC GRID IN 2025
International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process
This paper presents a strategic foresight study over the South America region, about the electrical grid until 2025 that considered the Climate Change phenomenon and many different energy sources, through Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Monte Carlo simulation. The evaluation considered the last Japan earthquake and nuclear plant accident in Fukushima and the technological convergence that will impact over the next 15 years in the electric grid sources. The research involved political,
... d political, economic, social and technological variables. The methodology showed the Analytic Hierarchy Process ability to identify a set of variables in a strategic prospective study. Through PEST analysis and qualitative variables obtained from literature review and incorporating an expert panel, it was possible to select the most influential variable for each PEST factor. These four variables became the criteria for an Analytic Hierarchy Process model development assessed by a new expert group to reduce the convergence criteria. Then a Monte Carlo simulation was run 1000 times, between six selected alternatives. The array showed to have four prospective scenarios of the electrical grid structure to 2025 in the South America Region, using techno-economics and the socio-political criteria. The study highlighted the contribution of renewable energy with nuclear power as the main source of energy mix by 2025.