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Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, nonstationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to determine the probability of flowdoi:10.5194/hess-15-3343-2011 fatcat:oycopopetra5pi6lodp5wwxa4a