Hydrological assessment of proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico, under historical and future climate scenarios

A. Robles-Morua, D. Che, A.S. Mayer, E.R. Vivoni
2014 Hydrological Sciences Journal  
A semi-distributed hydrological model and reservoir optimization algorithm are used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on existing and proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico. Interannual climatic variability, a bimodal precipitation regime and climate change uncertainties present challenges to water resource management in the region. Hydrological assessments are conducted for three meteorological products during a historical period and a future climate change
more » ... climate change scenario. Historical (1990Historical ( -2000 and future (2031-2040) projections were derived from a mesoscale model forced with boundary conditions from a general circulation model under a high emissions scenario. The results reveal significantly higher precipitation, reservoir inflows, elevations and releases in the future relative to historical simulations. Furthermore, hydrological seasonality might be altered with a shift toward earlier water supply during the North American monsoon. The proposed infrastructure would have a limited ability to ameliorate future conditions, with more benefits in a tributary with lower flood hazard. These projections of the impacts of climate change and its interaction with infrastructure should be of interest to water resources managers in arid and semi-arid regions. Evaluation hydrologique des réservoirs proposés dans le bassin de la rivière Sonora (Mexique), sous scénarios climatiques historique et futurs Mots clefs modélisation hydrologique ; changement climatique ; infrastructures hydraulique ; aide à la décision ; lutte contre les inondations ; Nord-Ouest du Mexique
doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.878462 fatcat:m7s2k4iv75gt3e4elevf3ohyva