Application of SWAT Model to the Olifants Basin: Calibration, Validation and Uncertainty Analysis

Charles Gyamfi, Julius Musyoka Ndambuki, Ramadhan Wanjala Salim
2016 Journal of Water Resource and Protection  
The application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to the Olifants Basin in South Africa was the focus of our study with emphasis on calibration, validation and uncertainty analysis. The Basin was discretized into 23 sub-basins and 226 Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) using 3 arc second (90 m × 90 m) pixel resolution SRTM DEM with stream gauge B7H015 as the Basin outlet. Observed stream flow data at B7H015 were used for model calibration (1988-2001) and validation (2002-2013) using
more » ... 2002-2013) using the split sample approach. Relative global sensitivity analysis using SUFI-2 algorithm was used to determine sensitive parameters to stream flow for calibration of the model. Performance efficiency of the Olifants SWAT model was assessed using Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE), coefficient of determination (R 2 ), Percent Bias (PBIAS) and Root Mean Square Error-Observation Standard deviation Ratio (RSR). Sensitivity analysis revealed in decreasing order of significance, runoff curve number (CN2), alpha bank factor (ALPHA_BNK), soil evaporation compensation factor (ESCO), soil available water capacity (SOIL_AWC, mm H2O/mm soil), groundwater delay (GW_ DELAY, days) and groundwater "revap" coefficient (GW_REVAP) to be the most sensitive parameters to stream flow. Analysis of the model during the calibration period gave the following statistics; NSE = 0.88; R 2 = 0.89; PBIAS = −11.49%; RSR = 0.34. On the other hand, statistics during the validation period were NSE = 0.67; R 2 = 0.79; PBIAS = −20.69%; RSR = 0.57. The observed statistics indicate the applicability of the SWAT model in simulating the hydrology of the Olifants Basin and therefore can be used as a Decision Support Tool (DST) by water managers and other relevant decisions making bodies to influence policy directions on the management of watershed processes especially water resources.
doi:10.4236/jwarp.2016.83033 fatcat:5yuh3vqzc5aq5nmme4iuhiabve