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We present a new model for probabilistic forecasting using graph-based rating method. We provide a "forward-looking" type graph-based approach and apply it to predict football game outcomes by simply using the historical game results data of the investigated competition. The assumption of our model is that the rating of the teams after a game day cor- rectly reflects the actual relative performance of them. We consider that the smaller the changing of the rating vector – contains the ratings ofdoi:10.5281/zenodo.3909408 fatcat:e4nm4lkkcbaotehbr5ttekq6hq