Spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue fever in Peru: 1994–2006

G. CHOWELL, C. A. TORRE, C. MUNAYCO-ESCATE, L. SUÁREZ-OGNIO, R. LÓPEZ-CRUZ, J. M. HYMAN, C. CASTILLO-CHAVEZ
2008 Epidemiology and Infection  
The weekly number of dengue cases in Peru, South America, stratified by province for the period 1994-2006 were analysed in conjunction with associated demographic, geographic and climatological data. Estimates of the reproduction number, moderately correlated with population size (Spearman r=0 . 28, P=0 . 03), had a median of 1 . 76 (IQR 0 . 83-4 . 46). The distributions of dengue attack rates and epidemic durations follow power-law (Pareto) distributions (coefficient of determination >85%, P<0
more » ... . 004). Spatial heterogeneity of attack rates was highest in coastal areas followed by mountain and jungle areas. Our findings suggest a hierarchy of transmission events during the large 2000-2001 epidemic from large to small population areas when serotypes DEN-3 and DEN-4 were first identified (Spearman r=x0 . 43, P=0 . 03). The need for spatial and temporal dengue epidemic data with a high degree of resolution not only increases our understanding of the dynamics of dengue but will also generate new hypotheses and provide a platform for testing innovative control policies.
doi:10.1017/s0950268808000290 pmid:18394264 fatcat:wolccosbobf4tfvqu3gu2bgisu