First wastewater surveillance-based city zonation for effective COVID-19 pandemic preparedness powered by early warning: A study of Ahmedabad, India [article]

Manish Kumar, Madhvi Joshi, Anil V Shah, Vaibhav Srivastava, Shyamnarayan Dave
2021 medRxiv   pre-print
Following the proven concept, capabilities, and limitations of detecting the RNA of Severe Acute Respiratory Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in wastewater, it is pertinent to understand the utility of wastewater surveillance data on various scale. In the present work, we put forward the first wastewater surveillance-based city zonation for effective COVID-19 pan-demic preparedness. A three-month data of Surveillance of Wastewater for Early Epidemic Prediction (SWEEP) was generated for the world
more » ... age city of Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India. In this expedition, one hundred sixteen wastewater samples were analyzed to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA, from September 3rd to November 26th, 2020. A total of 111 samples were detected with at least two out of three SARS-CoV-2 genes (N, ORF 1ab, and S). Monthly variation depicted a significant decline in all three genes copies in October compared to September 2020, followed by a sharp increment in November 2020. Correspondingly, the descending order of average genome concentration was: November (~10729 copies/ L) > September (~3047 copies/ L) > October (~454 copies/ L). Monthly variation of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the wastewater samples may be ascribed to a decline of 19.3% in the total number of active cases in October 2020 and a rise of 1.82% in November 2020. Also, the monthly recovery rate of patients was 16.61, 19.31, and 15.58% in September, October, and Novem-ber 2020, respectively. The percentage change in the genome concentration was observed in the lead of 1-2 weeks with respect to the provisional figures of confirmed cases. SWEEP data-based city zonation was matched with the heat map of the overall COVID-19 infected population in Ahmedabad city, and month-wise effective RNA concentration variations are shown on the map. The results expound on the potential of WBE surveillance of COVID-19 as a city zonation tool that can be meaningfully interpreted, predicted, and propagated for community preparedness through advance identification of COVID-19 hotspots within a given city.
doi:10.1101/2021.03.18.21253898 fatcat:lw5maoajqnbufabzsaarlo2c5y