Rapid review of COVID-19 epidemic estimation studies for Iran [post]

Farshad Pourmalek, Mohsen Rezaei Hemami, Leila Janani, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
2020 unpublished
Background: To inform the researchers about the methodology and results of epidemic estimation studies performed for COVID-19 epidemic in Iran, we aimed to perform a rapid review.Methods: We searched for and included published articles, preprint manuscripts and reports that estimated numbers of cumulative or daily deaths or cases of COVID-19 in Iran. We found 23 articles or reports and included eight articles (four published, four preprints) and three reports.Results: The included studies
more » ... ed outputs for a total of 45 study-scenarios. Seven studies used 3-4 compartmental disease models. At the end of month two of the epidemic (2020-04-19), the lowest (and highest) values of predictions were 3762 (97445) for cumulative deaths, 60720 (1489201) for cumulative cases, and at the end of month four (2020-06-20), were 86931 (3002721) for cumulative deaths, and 1602592 (2917927) for cumulative cases.Conclusions: Meticulousness and degree of details reported for disease modeling and statistical methods used in the included studies varied widely. Greater heterogeneity was observed regarding the results of predicted outcomes. Consideration of minimum and preferred reporting items in epidemic estimation studies might better inform future revisions of the available models and new models to be developed.
doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-31437/v1 fatcat:uet5t5llyfeivh224xkgu5saay