Mechanisms influencing seasonal-to-interannual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC

Jun Ono, Hiroaki Tatebe, Yoshiki Komuro, Masato I. Nodzu, Masayoshi Ishii
2017 The Cryosphere Discussions  
To assess the skill of predictions of the seasonal-to-interannual detrended sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean (SIEAO) and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted ensemble hindcasts, started on January 1st, April 1st, July 1st, and October 1st for each year from 1980 to 2011, for lead times of up three years, using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5 initialized with the observed atmosphere and ocean anomalies and sea ice concentration.
more » ... icant skill is found for the winter months: the December SIEAO can be predicted up to 1 year ahead. This skill is attributed to the subsurface ocean heat content originating in the North Atlantic. The subsurface water flows into the Barents Sea from spring to fall and emerges at the surface in winter by vertical mixing, and eventually affects the sea ice variability there. Meanwhile, the September SIEAO predictions are skillful for lead times of up to 3 months, due to the persistence of sea ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian Seas initialized in July, as suggested by previous studies.
doi:10.5194/tc-2017-122 fatcat:4gti4mqzs5gvdf6ruzkoqvbhle