The dynamics of commodity return comovements

Marcel Prokopczuk, Chardin Wese Simen, Robert Wichmann
2021 Journal of futures markets  
We compare factor models with respect to their ability to explain commodity futures return comovements. A simple one-factor model based on the first principal component extracted from a panel of commodity returns outperforms a macroeconomic model, and explains most of the realized comovements. We find that intersectoral correlations display more time variations than intrasectoral correlations. Dissecting the evidence further, we find that comovements are driven by the variation of the factor as
more » ... opposed to exposure to it. Our results cast doubt on the persistence of the effects of financialization and emphasize the importance of the dynamics of the factor variance. K E Y W O R D S commodity markets, comovement, factor model, financialization
doi:10.1002/fut.22222 fatcat:yz7u35dtdjhijd3z2brjpro73a