Scenario planning in dynamic multi-attribute tradespace exploration

Christopher J. Roberts, Matthew G. Richards, Adam M. Ross, Donna H. Rhodes, Daniel E. Hastings
2009 2009 3rd Annual IEEE Systems Conference  
The MIT Faculty has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters. Citation Roberts, C.J. et al. "Scenario planning in dynamic multi-attribute tradespace exploration. Abstract-The long time scales associated with complex system design and operation necessitate front-end systems engineering methodologies that enable consideration of alternative futures. This paper advances scenario planning techniques through a parameterization and ordering of
more » ... otential future contexts and stakeholder expectations (e.g., articulated system attributes, available technology, funding levels, and supporting infrastructures). After surveying existing approaches for scenario planning, a methodology for specifying and analyzing large numbers of alternative system timelines is presented. A satellite radar case study is used to motivate and illustrate the value of this approach. Benefits of the methodology include: (1) broader and more rigorous consideration of alternative future needs, contexts, and timelines, (2) identification of gaps in traditionallyderived scenario sets, (3) identification of passively value-robust system alternatives, and (4) providing a basis for evaluating system evolution strategies that enable sustainment of value delivery across potential timelines. Keywords-scenario planning, epoch-era analysis, multiattribute tradespace exploration, value robustness I.
doi:10.1109/systems.2009.4815828 fatcat:pwdc3qyg7zeendr2hwjc6t6wlu