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Predation -extortion or theft -imposes significant, sometimes prohibitive, costs on trade. Mutual causation of predation and trade can explain trade volume responses to liberalization that are otherwise puzzlingly 'too big' or 'too small'. Intensive margin responses are larger the weaker is enforcement while extensive margin responses are larger the stronger is enforcement. Efficient commercial policy in this setting should subsidize (tax) trade when enforcement is weak (strong). Thedoi:10.3386/w12576 fatcat:4pq6rnqptvh53m7x4hnwrfyzpu