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Traditional clinical prediction models focus on parameters of the individual patient. For infectious diseases, sources external to the patient, including characteristics of prior patients and seasonal factors, may improve predictive performance. We describe the development of a predictive model that integrates multiple sources of data in a principled statistical framework using a post-test odds formulation. Our method enables electronic real-time updating and flexibility, such that componentsdoi:10.7554/elife.63009.sa1 fatcat:pcagx3mvm5bihnnfybl5g35oru