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PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR COVID-19 INCIDENCE IN A MEDIUM-SIZED MUNICIPALITY IN BRAZIL (PONTA GROSSA, PARANÁ)
2020
Texto & Contexto Enfermagem
Objective: to produce a predictive model for the incidence of COVID-19 cases, severity and deaths in Ponta Grossa, state of Paraná. Methods: this is an ecological study with data from confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported between March 21, 2020 and May 3, 2020 in Ponta Grossa and proportion of severity, hospitalization and lethality in the literature. A susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model was developed, and reproduction rate (R0), duration of epidemic, peak period, number of
doi:10.1590/1980-265x-tce-2020-0154
fatcat:c63zvfpnnbc7dorh5k6mknbcc4