Optimal Sequential Tests for Two Simple Hypotheses

Andrey Novikov
2009 Sequential Analysis  
A general problem of testing two simple hypotheses about the distribution of a discrete-time stochastic process is considered. The main goal is to minimize an average sample number over all sequential tests whose error probabilities do not exceed some prescribed levels. As a criterion of minimization, the average sample number under a third hypothesis is used (modified Kiefer-Weiss problem). For a class of sequential testing problems, the structure of optimal sequential tests is characterized.
more » ... n application to the Kiefer-Weiss problem for discrete-time stochastic processes is proposed. As another application, the structure of Bayes sequential tests for two composite hypotheses, with a fixed cost per observation, is given. The results are also applied for finding optimal sequential tests for discrete-time Markov processes. In a particular case of testing two simple hypotheses about a location parameter of an autoregressive process of order 1, it is shown that the sequential probability ratio test has the Wald-Wolfowitz optimality property.
doi:10.1080/07474940902816809 fatcat:aksbuam6fzb7nf4q75ecmh6bbe