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A rational expectations framework is developed to study the consequences of alternative means to resolve the "unfunded liabilities" problem-unsustainable exponential growth in federal Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending with no plan to finance it. Resolution requires specifying a probability distribution for how and when monetary and fiscal policies will change as the economy evolves through the 21st century. Beliefs based on that distribution determine the existence of and thedoi:10.3386/w15782 fatcat:m2bkavt2dzgfhiql7dgemgn2ei