An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms Using Macroeconomic Aggregates [report]

Alexander Guarín-López, Andrés González-Gómez, Daphné Skandalis, Daniela Sanchez
2012 unpublished
In this paper, we propose an alternative methodology to determine the existence of credit booms, which is a complex and crucial issue for policymakers. In particular, we exploit the Mendoza and Terrones (2008)'s idea that macroeconomic aggregates other than the credit growth rate contain valuable information to predict credit boom episodes. Our econometric method is used to estimate and predict the probability of being in a credit boom. We run empirical exercises on quarterly data for six Latin
more » ... American countries between 1996 and 2011. In order to capture simultaneously model and parameter uncertainty, we implement the Bayesian model averaging method. As we employ panel data, the estimates may be used to predict booms of countries which are not considered in the estimation. Overall, our findings show that macroeconomic variables contain valuable information to predict credit booms. In fact, with our method the probability of detecting a credit boom is 80%, while the probability of not having false alarms is greater than 92%. JEL Codes: E32, E37, E44, E51, C53 * We would like to express our gratitude to Hernando Vargas and Sergio Ocampo for their valuable comments and suggestions and to Camila Fonseca for their assistance in the research work. The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent neither those of the Banco de la República nor of its Board of Directors. As usual, all errors and omissions in this work are our responsibility.
doi:10.32468/be.723 fatcat:asmrmixdzfembahx3zz5yv6wga