Growth at Risk From Climate Change

Michael T. Kiley, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2021 Finance and Economics Discussion Series  
How will climate change affect risks to economic activity? Research on climate impacts has tended to focus on effects on the average level of economic growth. I examine whether climate change may make severe contractions in economic activity more likely using quantile regressions linking growth to temperature. The effects of temperature on downside risks to economic growth are large and robust across specifications. These results suggest the growth at risk from climate change is large—climate
more » ... ange may make economic contractions more likely and severe and thereby significantly impact economic and financial stability and welfare.
doi:10.17016/feds.2021.054 fatcat:kdhmgvfv6vfvdjm4ymzp3pzqyy