RESEARCH ON THE OPTIMAL OPERATION OF A GROUP OF DAM RESERVOIRS CONSIDERING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER ABAILAVILITY
気候変動による利水への影響を踏まえたダム貯水池群の最適操作に関する研究

Kazuto KAWAMURA, Makoto NAKATSUGAWA, Kouki SUGIHARA
2012 Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers Ser B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)  
川村一人 1 ・中津川誠 2 ・杉原幸樹 3 Kazuto KAWAMURA, Makoto NAKATSUGAWA and Kouki SUGIHARA 1 学生会員 室蘭工業大学大学院工学研究科(〒050-8585 室蘭市水元町 27-1) 2 正会員 博士(工学) 室蘭工業大学大学院工学研究科(〒050-8585 室蘭市水元町 27-1) 3 正会員 理修 (株) 福田水文センター(〒001-0024 札幌市北区北 24 条西 15 丁目 2-5) This paper addresses the optimal operation of a group of dam reservoirs in a snowy region for adaptation to the water shortages that are expected to result from climate change. In snowy regions, climate change is likely to cause snow accumulation to decrease. This is
more » ... decrease. This is expected to shift the snow-melting season earlier, to decrease river discharge and, consequently, to reduce water availability. Thus, the operation of existing dams should be improved. Research was made on the operation of two multipurpose dams in the Toyohira river basin, which supplies water to Sapporo (population 2 million). Using reproductions (1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000) and projections (2081-2100) provided by the Regional Climate Model (RCM20) of the Japan Meteorological Agency, we estimated the optimal operation of a group of reservoirs by dynamic programming. The simulation suggests that shortages of dam storage will occur if each dam is operated separately, but that coordinating the discharge operations of two dams can make up for those shortages.
doi:10.2208/jscejhe.68.i_1477 fatcat:bqqjy3uvvzfwxkxkg3td7pke5a