Model-based reasoning requires not only inferences about what is 5 happening, but also evaluations of the desirability of what is happening. Emotions 6 are a key part of such assessments, but sometimes they can lead people astray, as 7 in motivated inference when people believe what fits with their desires. In contrast 8 to motivated inference, fear-driven inference generates beliefs that people do not 9 want to be true. Although paradoxical, this kind of inference is common in many 10 domains,

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... including romantic relationships, health, parenting, politics, and eco-11 nomics. This paper proposes that fear-driven inference results from gut overre-12 actions, in which a feeling that something is wrong is erroneously taken as 13 evidence that something really is wrong. We discuss psychological and neural 14 mechanisms by which gut overreactions can lead to fear-driven inference, and 15 show how a computer model of emotional coherence can explain both fear-driven 16 and motivated inference.