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The Mythical Swing Voter
[article]
2014
arXiv
pre-print
The only acceptable form of polling in the multi-billion dollar survey research field utilizes representative samples. We argue that with proper statistical adjustment, non-representative polling can provide accurate predictions, and often in a much more timely and cost-effective fashion. We demonstrate this by applying multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) to a 2012 election survey on the Xbox gaming platform. Not only do the transformed top-line projections from this data
arXiv:1406.7581v1
fatcat:lkemtiem3belrevvqo25nde2na