FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG BERPENGARUH TERHADAP JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR DI INDONESIA SEBELUM DAN SESUDAH KRISIS: SEBUAH ANALISIS EKONOMETRIKA

Lily Prayitno, Heny Sandjaya, Richard Llewelyn
2002 Jurnal Manajemen dan Wirausaha  
This study uses regression analysis with a log model to analyze the effect of government spending, foreign reserves and the money multiplier on the money supply in Indonesia for the period before the economic crisis (1990-1997), since the crisis (1997-1999) and overall (1990-1999). Before the crisis, the results show that government spending is significantly and positively related to the money supply; foreign reserves are not significant, and the money multiplier is actually significantly and
more » ... significantly and negatively related to the money supply. Since the crisis, government spending is still positively and significantly related with money supply while the foreign reserves and money multiplier are not significant. For the entire time period, government spending and foreign reserves have a positive and significant effect on money supply while the money multiplier has no significant effect. The government should apply fiscal policy as is has since the crisis and increase the amount of foreign reserves which it holds. The government should not depend on using the money multiplier in monetary policy since it was found to have no significant effect on money supply. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : Penelitian ini menggunakan analisa regresi dengan model log untuk menganalisa pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah, cadangan devisa, serta angka pengganda uang (money multiplier) terhadap jumlah uang beredar di Indonesia untuk periode periode sebelum krisis (1990-1997), sesudah krisis (1997-1999) dan secara keseluruhan (1990-1999). Sebelum krisis hasil menunjukkan bahwa pengeluaran pemerintah secara signifikan berpengaruh positif terhadap jumlah uang beredar (M2); cadangan devisa tidak signifikan terhadap jumlah uang beredar; sedangkan angka pengganda uang berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap jumlah uang beredar. Sesudah krisis, pengeluaran pemerintah secara signifikan berpengaruh positif terhadap jumlah uang beredar sedangkan cadangan devisa dan money multiplier tidak signifikan. Untuk seluruh waktu analisa, pengeluaran pemerintah dan cad [...]
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