Potential dengue vaccine demand in disease endemic and non-endemic countries

Ananda Amarasinghe, Ole Wichmann, Harold S. Margolis, Richard T. Mahoney
2010 Procedia in Vaccinology  
A dengue vaccine is likely to be available within the next 3-5 years and we estimated vaccine doses needed for dengue endemic countries (public and private markets) and non-endemic countries (travelers market) in the first 5 years after initial licensure. Calculations were based on 2015-2020 population projections for Asian and Americas endemic countries, and expected country-specific vaccination coverage in public, private, and travelers' sectors. Fifty-four countries were considered
more » ... emic with a population of 2.8 billion, including an annual cohort of 54 million 12-23 month old children. During the 5-year period an estimated 645 million vaccine doses would be required for early childhood immunization and up to 2 billion doses for catch-up immunization, with 80% in endemic countries being in the public sector. An estimated 59-89 million doses would be needed for the travelers market. These should be considered upper-limit estimates, with actual demand dependent on country-specific introduction strategies, price and final 1 vaccine product profile
doi:10.1016/j.provac.2010.03.021 fatcat:6bvf2wl5wjcy7mimw2gwasvlg4