Technology and architecture to enable the explosive growth of the internet

Adel Saleh, Jane Simmons
2011 IEEE Communications Magazine  
At current growth rates, Internet traffic will increase by a factor of one thousand in roughly 20 years. It will be challenging for transmission and routing/switching systems to keep pace with this level of growth without requiring prohibitively large increases in network cost and power consumption. We present a high-level vision for addressing these challenges based on both technological and architectural advancements. INDEX TERMS Internet, IP routers, fiber capacity, network evolution,
more » ... l efficiency, traffic grooming, traffic growth I. INTRODUCTION By numerous accounts, Internet traffic continues to exhibit exponential traffic growth. One of the leading sources monitoring Internet traffic levels indicates that the annual rate of growth is currently 40 to 50% [1]. A major IP router vendor has forecast that the Internet will grow at a compound rate of 35% from 2008 to 2013 [2] . As a related benchmark, a large telecommunications carrier has gauged their year-over-year IP traffic growth rate to be 45% [3]. If we assume a compound annual growth rate on the order of 40%, then Internet traffic will increase by a factor of 1,000 in roughly 20 years, as shown in Fig. 1 . Attaining this traffic threshold in this relatively short timeframe necessitates developing a high-level network evolution strategy today. Network capabilities, specifically transmission and routing/switching capabilities, will need to keep pace with the traffic in order for steady Internet growth to be sustained. While the capacity of fiber transmission systems has increased by a factor of roughly 100 over the past decade, attaining another three orders of magnitude growth will be very challenging. Fiber capacity, which once seemed to be almost infinite compared to the traffic requirements, is now approaching its theoretical limit [4] . Furthermore, building large-scale electronic routers and switches is already a challenge, which will only become more of an impediment in the future. Note that simply satisfying the thousandfold growth requirement is not sufficient; it must be done in a manner that is cost effective and power efficient. A two-pronged approach will likely be needed to meet these challenges: technological advancements to increase the realizable capacity of fiber and routers/switches; and architectural enhancements that effectively decrease the traffic burden on the network. Section II presents technological and architectural techniques that can meet the thousandfold traffic growth from a transmission perspective. Section III addresses these aspects for IP routers (the focus is on routers as they are more challenging and costly to scale than switches).
doi:10.1109/mcom.2011.5681026 fatcat:w63j7xblsnchlib5du2y2gvm2y