Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice on Cold Season Atmospheric Variability and Trends Estimated from Observations and a Multi-model Large Ensemble

Yu-Chiao Liang, Claude Frankignoul, Young-Oh Kwon, Guillaume Gastineau, Elisa Manzini, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Lingling Suo, Stephen Yeager, Yongqi Gao, Jisk J. Attema, Annalisa Cherchi, Rohit Ghosh (+4 others)
2021 Journal of Climate  
AbstractTo examine the atmospheric responses to Arctic sea-ice variability in the Northern Hemisphere cold season (October to following March), this study uses a coordinated set of large-ensemble experiments of nine atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced with observed daily-varying sea-ice, sea-surface temperature, and radiative forcings prescribed during the 1979-2014 period, together with a parallel set of experiments where Arctic sea ice is substituted by its climatology. The
more » ... imulations of the former set reproduce the near-surface temperature trends in reanalysis data, with similar amplitude, and their multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) shows decreasing sea-level pressure over much of the polar cap and Eurasia in boreal autumn. The MMEM difference between the two experiments allows isolating the effects of Arctic sea-ice loss, which explain a large portion of the Arctic warming trends in the lower troposphere and drives a small but statistically significant weakening of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation. The observed interannual co-variability between sea-ice extent in the Barents-Kara Seas and lagged atmospheric circulation is distinguished from the effects of confounding factors based on multiple regression, and quantitatively compared to the co-variability in MMEMs. The interannual sea-ice decline followed by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like anomaly found in observations is also seen in the MMEM differences, with consistent spatial structure but much smaller amplitude. This result suggests that the sea-ice impacts on trends and interannual atmospheric variability simulated by AGCMs could be underestimated, but caution is needed because internal atmospheric variability may have affected the observed relationship.
doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0578.1 fatcat:jv324epswbd5bhnk7pccrkvhri