The influence of anthropogenic climate change on extreme bushfire weather in Australia is assessed using a standardised method for projections information. The method steps comprise a review and synthesis of a comprehensive range of factors based on observations, modelling and physical process understanding. The resultant lines of evidence are then used to guide the production of projections data and confidence assessments. Projections are produced based on global climate model output as well

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... dynamical downscaling data using three regional climate modelling approaches (CCAM, BARPA and NARCliM/WRF). The projections data are calibrated using quantile matching methods trained on observations-based data, with a particular focus on the accurate representation of extremes. The resultant projections data include nationally consistent maps of bushfire weather indices corresponding to the 10-year average recurrence interval (i.e., return period) around the middle of this century (2040-2059), with a focus of the discussion on regions around southern and eastern Australia during summer as needed for some risk assessment applications. The projections data are also available for other seasons and time periods throughout this century, as well as for other metrics of extreme or average conditions. The results for southern and eastern Australia during summer show more dangerous bushfire conditions (high confidence in southern Australia; medium confidence in eastern Australia) attributable to increasing greenhouse gas emissions.