LONG RUN DETERMINANTS OF CEREAL PRODUCTION IN ETHIOPIA: DOES CO2 EMISSION MATTER?

Solomon Wassie
2017 unpublished
The study employed vector error correction model to examine the long run relationship between climate change and cereal production using time series data (1962-2014) in Ethiopia. The cointegrating equation shows that the parameters included in the model are jointly significant at 1% significant level. The study revealed that a 10% percent increase in CO2 emission would have 2.75 % cereal production loss in the country. However, land and fertilizer were found to have positive and significant
more » ... -term impact on cereal production in the country. The forecasted cereal production-using contingent equation-shows that cereal production is expected to grow annually by 2.8%, on average, for the next 10 years. As a concluding remark, efforts towards reducing CO2 should be strengthened to further enhance the cereal production growth in the country. Moreover, providing fertilizer for the farmers with a reasonable price on due time is decisive to benefit from intensive agriculture.
fatcat:jcybyfske5bkvcyruchua6cki4